Uncertainty clouds Europe's security guarantees for Ukraine, warns expert

Washington, Aug 21 (IANS) As officials from the United States and NATO met virtually on Wednesday to discuss the security guarantees for Ukraine following US President Donald Trump's meeting with the leaders of European countries, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, a leading international affairs expert cited that it would remain a contentious issue, not for Russia but for Ukraine's European friends.

Speaking exclusively with IANS, Mikhail Troitskiy, a visiting Professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, asserted that only a few countries would sign up to "recurring donation".

"There's a huge problem here which is the willingness of those western partners to support Ukraine. Some European countries would want to provide some funding, a couple of $100 million or maybe a billion dollars to Ukraine to support its military and security infrastructure. Also, not many would want to put troops on the ground and get involved in actual fighting if Ukraine is attacked by Russia again," Troitskiy mentioned.

He also argued that Russia does not have the "ability to veto" security guarantees or any other assistance to Ukraine.

"To me, Russia's position on security guarantees seems to be irrelevant. It's a bit of a red herring. Russia doesn't have a strong hand here. This is something that is decided between Ukraine and its Western partners," says Troitskiy who has over two decades of expertise in Russia-focused strategic developments.

He termed the US-Europe meetings on Monday a “show of unity” with Trump “acting more as a mediator and a non-partisan player than a Ukraine supporter” and highlighted that significant details are yet to be ironed out.

“It was a show of unity, although almost no details were disclosed. On the surface, it looked as if those meeting participants pledged to act together to protect Ukraine's interests in any peace settlement. European leaders tried to stand by Ukraine but did not provide any details as to how far their support for Ukraine would extend, and what kind of risks and financial commitments they are prepared to take upon themselves to support Ukraine,” said Troitskiy.

Earlier this week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni led Europe’s call for NATO-style security commitments for Ukraine, invoking Article 5 - the alliance’s pledge that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all.

While promising “a lot of help” during meetings with European leaders, Trump on Tuesday ruled out deploying the US military to Ukraine but indicated some form of air support as part of the guarantees.

On the question of land swap as part of Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia, Troitskiy noted that “the Ukrainian position has now shifted” from no territorial concessions to proportionate territorial concessions.

“I don't think Zelensky and Putin would go into a meeting without understanding how the territorial issue would be sorted out. My guess is that Putin will propose swapping the unoccupied part of Donbas or something in the south of Ukraine for territories that are occupied by Russia, for example, in the Kherson region. But certainly, Zelensky will not agree to just unilaterally give up land in Donetsk," he explained.

Russia controls almost 20 per cent of the Ukrainian territory, with almost all of the Luhansk region and around three-fourth of the Donetsk. In southern Ukraine, it occupies more than 70 per cent of the Kherson province.

Troitskiy predicted that US secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil are expected to “go into force” on August 27 while ruling out any similar action against China.

“Little progress will be achieved before August 27. India will try to manoeuvre out of the situation. I don't think Trump is going to put additional tariffs on China for the time being.”

However, he believed that the US also has other tools to target Russia if negotiations don’t work.

“Trump has plenty of options to increase pressure on Russia through sanctions and putting Russian banks on the US Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list and going after cryptocurrency traders. I think Russia understands that perfectly well," Troitskiy concluded.

--IANS

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