In a fast and furious rally led by a $2 billion buying blitz from foreign institutional investors ( FIIs), the Sensex and Nifty have rocketed nearly 8% each over the last six straight sessions of non-stop gains and if Wednesday ends in the green, it will mark a stunning seventh day of this relentless bull charge. With the Sensex sprinting past the psychological milestone of 80,000, and the bulls—now visibly giddy—are placing their bets on the Nifty storming toward 25,000.
But just as the confetti starts to fly, a few warning flares are lighting up the charts. Technical analysts are beginning to whisper that the markets might be tiptoeing into overbought territory, a setup that typically invites a round of profit booking. However, just when the mood seemed ripe for a pause, the global backdrop turned dramatically rosier.
Wall Street, which had opened the week on a sour note, reversed its sharp Monday losses and climbed to session highs after reports quoted U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the tariff standoff with China “unsustainable.” The market took this as a clear signal of a possible de-escalation in trade tensions—music to the ears of risk-hungry investors.
Adding fuel to the optimism, Donald Trump said he preferred a deal with China that would avoid tariffs of nearly 145%, though he made it clear that he’d still play hardball if needed. In another unexpected twist, Trump also backed down from his earlier threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying he wouldn’t fire him but made it equally clear he wants rate cuts.
Those comments triggered a relief rally across Asian markets on Wednesday. Indian equities, already running hot, took this as fresh oxygen and surged higher still.
After such a vertical move, the market’s legs may be getting wobbly. Sameet Chavan, Head of Research at Angel One, said that after an 11% rally from the April lows of 21,743, signs of fatigue are now visible. He pointed to a “Doji” candlestick formation on the daily chart, a sign of indecision and a potential prelude to consolidation or minor dips. Chavan warned that hourly indicators are firmly in overbought territory, and a more selective, 'buy on dips' strategy might be the way forward. For now, the bullish gap between 23,800–23,900 is expected to offer near-term support.
Also read | FIIs hit sell button on TCS, Infosys and 5 other IT stocks. Is this peak pessimism?
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted support zones at 24,100 and 24,000, while resistance looms at 24,250. If the Nifty breaks through that upper band, he sees a rapid surge toward 24,500–25,000 and the Sensex stretching up to 80,400–80,500. That said, as markets climb toward these levels, Chouhan recommends reducing weak long positions. He advises investors to be buyers only in selective stocks with a medium-term outlook. The Bank Nifty, he noted, is eyeing 57,000, with resistance expected at 56,200 and 56,600, and support at 55,200 and 55,000.
On the derivatives front, signs of caution are mounting. Axis Securities pointed out that the Nifty’s April rollover stood at just 45.2% on Tuesday, compared to 41.2% on the same day during the previous expiry. That's well below the three-month average of 53.5% and the six-month average of 50.5%. Market-wide rollover also lagged at 60.1%, reflecting subdued sentiment and lower positioning across the board.
Also read | Bajaj Finance crowned new Nifty king of 2025 with highest 36% return. What’s next?
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said a “spinning top” candlestick has appeared, which could hint at a reversal—though, in the absence of strong confirmation, it might merely represent a pause. He sees levels like 24,303, 24,624, and 24,857—December peaks—coming into play. On the flip side, a break below 23,870 may be the signal for a sharper correction, with 23,600 as the initial downside target.
In sum, this rally has been electric—powered by global winds, liquidity gush, and bullish sentiment. But as the Nifty eyes 25,000 and the Sensex clings to 80K, the question is no longer "how high?" but "how much longer?" The bulls are still charging, but the runway may be getting shorter at least in the near term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
But just as the confetti starts to fly, a few warning flares are lighting up the charts. Technical analysts are beginning to whisper that the markets might be tiptoeing into overbought territory, a setup that typically invites a round of profit booking. However, just when the mood seemed ripe for a pause, the global backdrop turned dramatically rosier.
Wall Street, which had opened the week on a sour note, reversed its sharp Monday losses and climbed to session highs after reports quoted U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the tariff standoff with China “unsustainable.” The market took this as a clear signal of a possible de-escalation in trade tensions—music to the ears of risk-hungry investors.
Adding fuel to the optimism, Donald Trump said he preferred a deal with China that would avoid tariffs of nearly 145%, though he made it clear that he’d still play hardball if needed. In another unexpected twist, Trump also backed down from his earlier threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying he wouldn’t fire him but made it equally clear he wants rate cuts.
Those comments triggered a relief rally across Asian markets on Wednesday. Indian equities, already running hot, took this as fresh oxygen and surged higher still.
After such a vertical move, the market’s legs may be getting wobbly. Sameet Chavan, Head of Research at Angel One, said that after an 11% rally from the April lows of 21,743, signs of fatigue are now visible. He pointed to a “Doji” candlestick formation on the daily chart, a sign of indecision and a potential prelude to consolidation or minor dips. Chavan warned that hourly indicators are firmly in overbought territory, and a more selective, 'buy on dips' strategy might be the way forward. For now, the bullish gap between 23,800–23,900 is expected to offer near-term support.
Also read | FIIs hit sell button on TCS, Infosys and 5 other IT stocks. Is this peak pessimism?
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted support zones at 24,100 and 24,000, while resistance looms at 24,250. If the Nifty breaks through that upper band, he sees a rapid surge toward 24,500–25,000 and the Sensex stretching up to 80,400–80,500. That said, as markets climb toward these levels, Chouhan recommends reducing weak long positions. He advises investors to be buyers only in selective stocks with a medium-term outlook. The Bank Nifty, he noted, is eyeing 57,000, with resistance expected at 56,200 and 56,600, and support at 55,200 and 55,000.
On the derivatives front, signs of caution are mounting. Axis Securities pointed out that the Nifty’s April rollover stood at just 45.2% on Tuesday, compared to 41.2% on the same day during the previous expiry. That's well below the three-month average of 53.5% and the six-month average of 50.5%. Market-wide rollover also lagged at 60.1%, reflecting subdued sentiment and lower positioning across the board.
Also read | Bajaj Finance crowned new Nifty king of 2025 with highest 36% return. What’s next?
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said a “spinning top” candlestick has appeared, which could hint at a reversal—though, in the absence of strong confirmation, it might merely represent a pause. He sees levels like 24,303, 24,624, and 24,857—December peaks—coming into play. On the flip side, a break below 23,870 may be the signal for a sharper correction, with 23,600 as the initial downside target.
In sum, this rally has been electric—powered by global winds, liquidity gush, and bullish sentiment. But as the Nifty eyes 25,000 and the Sensex clings to 80K, the question is no longer "how high?" but "how much longer?" The bulls are still charging, but the runway may be getting shorter at least in the near term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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